The impact of rainfall and temperature on the spatial progression of cases during the chikungunya re-emergence in Thailand in 2008-2009
Autor(es): Chadsuthi Sudarat, Iamsirithaworn Sopon, Triampo Wannapong, Cummings Derek A T
Resumo: In 2008, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) re-emerged in Thail- after more than a decade of absence. Cases first appeared in the extreme southern region of the country - advanced northward approx. 300 km over the next 18 months. The spatial advance of CHIKV cases appeared to occur at two rates, initially progressing slowly - then increasing in speed. We hypothesize that climatic variation affected the transmission of CHIKV in the country. To determine the effect of climate on CHIKV transmission, we evaluated models where climate affects the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans; extrinsic incubation period; fertility rate of mosquitoes; - the mortality rate of mosquito larvae. We compared these models to models that did not include climate effects. The inclusion of climate data greatly improved model fit with models assuming climate affected the fertility rate of mosquitoes providing the best fit to data. These results suggest that climatic variation contributed to the slower rate of incidence observed in March 2009. Overall, a gradient in transmission probability - mortality - fertility rates of mosquito is observed over the entire area with the most southern districts experiencing the most efficient transmission.
Palavras-Chave: Chikungunya; Emergence; Spatial; Thailand
Imprenta: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, v. 110, n. 2, p. 125-133, 2016
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1093/trstmh/trv114
Descritores: Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health
Data de publicação: 2016
