Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation
Autor(es): Proestos Y, Christophides G K, Ergüler K, Tanarhte M, Waldock J, Lelieveld J
Resumo: Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations - evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever - various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation - relative humidity, we present both global - regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe - provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties - performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway - using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria - combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, - adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a l- area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology - climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional - global spreading of VBDs to support disease control - policy making.
Palavras-Chave: Aedes albopictus; Climate change; Global climate modelling; Habitat suitability; Vector distribution model; Vector-borne diseases
Imprenta: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, v. 370, n. 1665, 2015
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0554
Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Chikungunya fever ; Chikungunya virus - Dengue ; Chikungunya virus - Public health
Data de publicação: 2015
