Investigating transmission in a two-wave epidemic of Chikungunya fever, Réunion Island
Autor(es): Boëlle P-Y, Thomas G, Vergu E, Renault P, Valleron A-J, Flahault A
Resumo: An epidemic of Chikungunya fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, spectacularly swept through Réunion Isl- (population 780,000) in 2005-2006. There were 3,000 cases in a first wave (March-June 2005) - more than 250,000 cases in a second (December 2005-April 2006). Adapting newly developed epidemiological tools to vector-borne diseases, we show that despite this massive difference in magnitude, the transmission potential as measured by the number of secondary cases per index case (or reproduction number), remained similar during the two consecutive waves. The best estimate for the initial reproduction number R(0) was 3.7, with a possible range from 2 to 11 depending on incubation duration - lifespan of the mosquito. We conclude that an increase in virulence between the two seasons was not necessary to explain the change in magnitude of the epidemics, - that the attack rate may be well over 50% in Chikungunya fever epidemics in the absence of intervention.
Imprenta: Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, v. 8, n. 2, p. 207-217, 2008
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1089/vbz.2006.0620
Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Chikungunya fever ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemic ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health
Data de publicação: 2008
