Autor(es): Chen, Szu-Chieh; Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chou, Hsiao-Han; You, Shu-Han; Cheng, Yi-Hsien

Resumo: The purpose of this study was to link meteorological factors and mosquito (Aedes aegypti) abundance to examine the potential effects of climate variations on patterns of dengue epidemiology in Taiwan during 2001-2008. Spearman's rank correlation tests with and without time-lag were performed to investigate the overall correlation between dengue incidence rates and meteorological variables (i.e., minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and rainfall) and percentage Breteau index (BI) level >2 in Taipei and Kaohsiung of northern and southern Taiwan, respectively. A Poisson regression analysis was performed by using a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach. The most parsimonious model was selected based on the quasi-likelihood based information criterion (QICu). Spearman's rank correlation tests revealed marginally positive trends in the weekly mean (Ie=0.28, p 2 are the significant predictors of dengue incidence in Kaohsiung (QICu=a277.77). This study suggested that warmer temperature with 3-month lag, elevated humidity with high mosquito density increased the transmission rate of human dengue fever infection in southern Taiwan.

Palavras-Chave: Climate change; Statistical analysis; Public health; Rainfall; Climate; Infection; Disease transmission; Epidemiology; Dengue; Regression analysis; Temperature; Meteorology; Variability; Estimating Equations; Aedes aegypti

Imprenta: Science of the Total Environment, v. 408, n. 19, p. 4069-4075, 2010.

Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Transmission ; Aedes aegypti - Dengue ; Aedes aegypti - Epidemiology ; Aedes aegypti - Public health

Data de publicação: 2010