Key trends in solar PV and wind energy development
Autor(es): Wim Turkenburg
Palavras-Chave: Energia solar
Notas: Solar thermal electricity is 20 years behind wind power in market exploitation (some 400 MW, in 1998); perspectives are for 200 MW until 2010. Costs are dropping rapidly to reach levels of wind power; if this trend is sustained, solar thermal-electric power can 12-18 GW by 2020. Market development is discussed, as well as new technology possibilities. Low temperature solar energy (< 100 C) is a very promising alternative to many of the needed uses (today, estimated at 5O EJ/y for space heating 10 EJ/y for water heating). The use of solar energy today (domestic) corresponds to 50 PJ/y. Production is increasing rapidly all over the world. Technologies are presented (space heating, heat pumps, district heating, solar cooling, drying, etc); new technologies may reduce todays cost ($ 0,03-0,20/KWh) in 25-50%. Solar photovoltaic systems installed today corresponded to 800 MW (1998), mostly (80%) in installed systems. Large advances in technology are discussed, both for cells, other components and systems; average growth has been 15% per year, since 1983. It is possible that they will play a significant role in many isolated systems. Wind energy has a very large potential (20 to 50 thousand TWh/y) considering economic situations, worldwide. Growth in installed capacity was 30%/year, from 1994-1999, with programs in 29 countries. It is expected a total installed power of 30 GW in 2004. Technologies are reviewed, as well as the current trends.
