Assessing the risk of importing dengue and chikungunya viruses to the European Union
Autor(es): Seyler Thomas, Grandesso Francesco, Le Strat Yann, Tarantola Arnaud, Depoortere Evelyn
Resumo: A competent vector of dengue - chikungunya viruses, Aedes albopictus, is present in Europe. As a first step towards assessing the likelihood of local transmission of these viruses in Europe, we estimated the number of viremic person-days among air-travellers arriving in the European Union (EU). For dengue, we developed a Monte Carlo model with the following parameters: probability distributions based on quarterly incidences in endemic countries (years 2003-2007), passenger flow from endemic to EU countries (year 2006), duration of viremia, probability of being viremic upon arrival, distribution - period of vector activity in the EU. For chikungunya, due to scarce incidence data, we developed a model with point estimates. We estimated at 4763 (range 3067-7019) the median dengue viremic person-days in 2006 with highest estimate among travellers from Asia during the third quarter. Dengue estimates among travellers arriving in EU Aedes-infested areas from April to October were 169 viremic person-days, 130 arriving in Italy. For chikungunya, we estimated 6 viremic person-days in EU Aedes-infested areas among air-travellers from India; all occurred in Italy. Our results are a first step towards a real estimation of the risk of local dengue transmission in Europe. Further research is needed to better underst- vector capacity - other factors related to virus transmission in temperate climates. Information on personal protection to travellers, early diagnosis - implementation of vector monitoring - control should be a priority in EU areas where the vector is established.
Palavras-Chave: Risk assessment; Dengue; Chikungunya; Introduction; Europe
Imprenta: Epidemics, v. 1, n. 3, p. 175-184, 2009
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1016/j.epidem.2009.06.003
Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Flaviviridae ; Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Inflammation ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Dengue ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemic ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health
Data de publicação: 2009
