Autor(es): Karl Stephan, Halder Nilimesh, Kelso Joel K, Ritchie Scott A, Milne George J

Resumo: The World Health Organization estimates that the global number of dengue infections range between 80-100 million per year, with some studies estimating approximately three times higher numbers. Furthermore, the geographic range of dengue virus transmission is extending with the disease now occurring more frequently in areas such as southern Europe. Ae. aegypti, one of the most prominent dengue vectors, is endemic to the far north-east of Australia - the city of Cairns frequently experiences dengue outbreaks which sometimes lead to large epidemics. A spatially-explicit, individual-based mathematical model that accounts for the spread of dengue infection as a result of human movement - mosquito dispersion is presented. The model closely couples the four key sub-models necessary for representing the overall dynamics of the physical system, namely those describing mosquito population dynamics, human movement, virus transmission - vector control. Important features are the use of high quality outbreak data - mosquito trapping data for calibration - validation - a strategy to derive local mosquito abundance based on vegetation coverage - census data. The model has been calibrated using detailed 2003 dengue outbreak data from Cairns, together with census - mosquito trapping data, - is shown to realistically reproduce a further dengue outbreak. The simulation results replicating the 2008/2009 Cairns epidemic support several hypotheses (formulated previously) aimed at explaining the large-scale epidemic which occurred in 2008/2009; specifically, while warmer weather - increased human movement had only a small effect on the spread of the virus, a shorter virus strain-specific extrinsic incubation time can explain the observed explosive outbreak of 2008/2009. The proof-of-concept simulation model described in this study has potential as a tool for underst-ing factors contributing to dengue spread as well as planning - optimizing dengue control, including reducing the Ae. aegypti vector population - for estimating the effectiveness - cost-effectiveness of future vaccination programmes. This model could also be applied to other vector borne viral diseases such as chikungunya, also spread by Ae. aegypti -, by re-parameterisation of the vector sub-model, to dengue - chikungunya viruses spread by Aedes albopictus.

Imprenta: BMC Infectious Diseases, v. 14, p. 447, 2014

Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1186/1471-2334-14-447

Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Flaviviridae ; Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Dengue ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemic ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health

Data de publicação: 2014