Autor(es): Yang, Hyun Mo; Macoris, Maria de Lourdes da Graca; Galvani, Karen Cristina; Andrighetti, Maria Teresa Macoris

Resumo: The dengue virus is a vector-borne disease transmitted by mosquito Aedes aegypti and the incidence is strongly influenced by temperature and humidity which vary seasonally. To assess the effects of temperature on dengue transmission, mathematical models are developed based on the population dynamics theory. However, depending on the hypotheses of the modelling, different outcomes regarding to the risk of epidemics are obtained. We address this question comparing two simple models supplied with model's parameters estimated from temperature-controlled experiments, especially the entomological parameters regarded to the mosquito's life cycle in different temperatures. Once obtained the mortality and transition rates of different stages comprising the life cycle of mosquito and the oviposition rate, we compare the capacity of vector reproduction (the basic offspring number) and the risk of infection (basic reproduction number) provided by two models. The extended model, which is more realistic, showed that both mosquito population and dengue risk are situated at higher values than the simplified model, even that the basic offspring number is lower.

Palavras-Chave: Temperature effects; Human diseases; Humidity; Life cycle; Pest control; Aquatic insects; Mortality causes; Disease transmission; Public health; Mortality; Mathematical models; Epidemics; Vector-borne diseases; Vectors; Infection; Population dynamics; Dengue; Progeny; Reproduction; Oviposition; Dengue virus; Aedes aegypti

Imprenta: Biosystems, v. 103, n. 3, p. 360-371, 2011.

Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Virus ; Aedes aegypti - Transmission ; Aedes aegypti - Dengue ; Aedes aegypti - Epidemic ; Aedes aegypti - Public health

Data de publicação: 2011

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