Event history analysis of dengue fever epidemic and inter-epidemic spells in Barbados, Brazil, and Thailand
Autor(es): Parker, Daniel; Holman, Darryl
Resumo: Objective: This study investigated meteorological and demographic factors affecting the length of dengue fever epidemics and the length of time between epidemics in Barbados, Brazil, and Thailand.Methods: Region-specific meteorological and demographic data were collected for 104 sites from public sources. Fixed effects piecewise logistic event history analysis was used to quantify the effects of time-varying covariates on the duration of inter-epidemic spells and for the duration of epidemics.Results: Mean monthly temperature was the most important factor affecting the duration of both inter-epidemic spells (beta = 0.543; confidence interval (CI) 0.4954, 0.5906) and epidemic spells (beta = -0.648; CI -0.7553, -0.5405). Drought conditions increased the time between epidemics. Increased temperature hastened the onset of an epidemic, and during an epidemic, higher mean temperature increased the duration of the epidemic.Conclusions: By using a duration analysis, this study offers a novel approach for investigating the dynamics of dengue fever epidemiology. Furthermore, these results offer new insights into prior findings of a correlation between temperature and the geographic range and vector efficiency of dengue fever. (C) 2012 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Palavras-Chave: Dengue; Climate; Environment; Epidemiology
Imprenta: International Journal of Infectious Diseases, v. 16, n. 11, p. E793-E798, 2012
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1016/j.ijid.2012.07.002
Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Infectious diseases ; Aedes aegypti - Dengue ; Aedes aegypti - Epidemiology
Data de publicação: 2012
