Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases
Autor(es): Peterson A Townsend,MartÃnez-Campos Carmen,Nakazawa Yoshinori,MartÃnez-Meyer Enrique
Resumo: Numerous human diseases-malaria, dengue, yellow fever and leishmaniasis, to name a few-are transmitted by insect vectors with brief life cycles and biting activity that varies in both space and time. Although the general geographic distributions of these epidemiologically important species are known, the spatiotemporal variation in their emergence and activity remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling via a genetic algorithm to produce time-specific predictive models of monthly distributions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico in 1995. Significant predictions of monthly mosquito activity and distributions indicate that predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of disease vector species is feasible; significant coincidence with human cases of dengue indicate that these dynamics probably translate directly into transmission of dengue virus to humans. This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk.
Palavras-Chave: Dengue; Aedes aegypti; Ecological niche modeling; Spatiotemporal variation; Remote sensing; Mexico
Imprenta: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, v. 99, n. 9, p. 647-655, 2005
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.02.004
Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Pathogenesis ; Aedes aegypti - Viral infections ; Aedes aegypti - virus ; Aedes aegypti - Transmission ; Aedes aegypti - Dengue ; Aedes aegypti - Public health
Data de publicação: 2005
