Autor(es): Dumont Y, Chiroleu F, Domerg C

Resumo: Reunion Isl- faced two episodes of Chikungunya, a vector-borne disease, in 2005 - in 2006. The latter was of unprecedented magnitude: one third of the population was infected. Until the severe episode of 2006, our knowledge of Chikungunya was very limited. The principal aim of our study is to propose a model, including human - mosquito compartments, that is associated to the time course of the first epidemic of Chikungunya. By computing the basic reproduction number R(0), we show there exists a disease-free equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than 1. Moreover, we give a necessary condition for global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Then, we propose a numerical scheme that is qualitatively stable - present several simulations as well as numerical estimates of the basic reproduction number for some cities of Reunion Isl-. For the episode of 2005, R(0) was less than one, which partly explains why no outbreak appeared. Using recent entomological results, we investigate links between the episode of 2005 - the outbreak of 2006. Finally, our work shows that R(0) varied from place to place on the isl-, indicating that quick - focused interventions, like the destruction of breeding sites, may be effective for controlling the disease.

Palavras-Chave: Chikungunya; Vector-borne disease; Differential equation; Basic reproduction number; Equilibrium; Global stability; Metzler matrix; Non-standard finite difference method; Simulation

Imprenta: Mathematical Biosciences, v. 213, n. 1, p. 80-91, 2008

Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.02.008

Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemic ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health

Data de publicação: 2008

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