Nowcasting the spread of Chikungunya virus in the Americas

Autor(es): Johansson Michael A, Powers Ann M, Pesik Nicki, Cohen Nicole J, Staples J Erin


Resumo: In December 2013, the first locally-acquired chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections in the Americas were reported in the Caribbean. As of May 16, 55,992 cases had been reported - the outbreak was still spreading. Identification of newly affected locations is paramount to intervention activities, but challenging due to limitations of current data on the outbreak - on CHIKV transmission. We developed models to make probabilistic predictions of spread based on current data considering these limitations. Branching process models capturing travel patterns, local infection prevalence, climate dependent transmission factors, - associated uncertainty estimates were developed to predict probable locations for the arrival of CHIKV-infected travelers - for the initiation of local transmission. Many international cities - areas close to where transmission has already occurred were likely to have received infected travelers. Of the ten locations predicted to be the most likely locations for introduced CHIKV transmission in the first four months of the outbreak, eight had reported local cases by the end of April. Eight additional locations were likely to have had introduction leading to local transmission in April, but with substantial uncertainty. Branching process models can characterize the risk of CHIKV introduction - spread during the ongoing outbreak. Local transmission of CHIKV is currently likely in several Caribbean locations - possible, though uncertain, for other locations in the continental United States, Central America, - South America. This modeling framework may also be useful for other outbreaks where the risk of pathogen spread over heterogeneous transportation networks must be rapidly assessed on the basis of limited information.


Imprenta: PloS One, v. 9, n. 8, p. e104915, 2014


Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104915


Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Chikungunya fever ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health


Data de publicação: 2014