Autor(es): Manore Carrie A, Hickmann Kyle S, Xu Sen, Wearing Helen J, Hyman James M

Resumo: Chikungunya - dengue are re-emerging mosquito-borne infectious diseases that are of increasing concern as human travel - exp-ing mosquito ranges increase the risk of spread. We seek to underst- the differences in transient - endemic behavior of chikungunya - dengue; risk of emergence for different virus-vector assemblages; - the role that virus evolution plays in disease dynamics - risk. To address these questions, we adapt a mathematical mosquito-borne disease model to chikungunya - dengue in Aedes aegypti - Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. We derive analytical threshold conditions - important dimensionless parameters for virus transmission; perform sensitivity analysis on quantities of interest such as the basic reproduction number, endemic equilibrium, - first epidemic peak; - compute distributions for the quantities of interest across parameter ranges. We found that chikungunya - dengue exhibit different transient dynamics - long-term endemic levels. While the order of most sensitive parameters is preserved across vector-virus combinations, the magnitude of sensitivity is different across scenarios, indicating that risk of invasion or an outbreak can change with vector-virus assemblages. We found that the dengue - A. aegypti - new Rèunion strain of chikungunya - A. albopictus systems represent the highest risk across the range of parameters considered. These results inform future experimental - field research efforts - point toward effective mitigation strategies adapted to each disease.

Palavras-Chave: Disease comparison; Emerging disease; Mathematical model; Vector-borne disease control

Imprenta: Journal of Theoretical Biology, v. 356, p. 174-191, 2014

Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.04.033

Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Flaviviridae ; Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Infectious diseases ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Chikungunya fever ; Chikungunya virus - Dengue ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemic ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health

Data de publicação: 2014