Approximation of the basic reproduction number R0 for vector-borne diseases with a periodic vector population
Autor(es): Bacaër Nicolas
Resumo: The main purpose of this paper is to give an approximate formula involving two terms for the basic reproduction number R(0) of a vector-borne disease when the vector population has small seasonal fluctuations of the form p(t) = p(0) (1+epsilon cos(omegat - phi)) with epsilon < 1. The first term is similar to the case of a constant vector population p but with p replaced by the average vector population p(0). The maximum correction due to the second term is (epsilon(2)/8)% - always tends to decrease R(0). The basic reproduction number R(0) is defined through the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. Four numerical methods for the computation of R(0) are compared using as example a model for the 2005/2006 chikungunya epidemic in La Réunion. The approximate formula - the numerical methods can be used for many other epidemic models with seasonality.
Palavras-Chave: Epidemics; Basic reproduction number; Seasonality
Imprenta: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, v. 69, n. 3, p. 1067-1091, 2007
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1007/s11538-006-9166-9
Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemic ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health
Data de publicação: 2007
