A metapopulation model for chikungunya including populations mobility on a large-scale network
Autor(es): Moulay Djamila, Pigné Yoann
Resumo: In this paper we study the influence of populations mobility on the spread of a vector-borne disease. We focus on the chikungunya epidemic event that occurred in 2005-2006 on the Réunion Isl-, Indian Ocean, France, - validate our models with real epidemic data from the event. We propose a metapopulation model to represent both a high-resolution patch model of the isl- with realistic population densities - also mobility models for humans (based on real-motion data) - mosquitoes. In this metapopulation network, two models are coupled: one for the dynamics of the mosquito population - one for the transmission of the disease. A high-resolution numerical model is created from real geographical, demographical - mobility data. The Isl- is modeled with an 18,000-nodes metapopulation network. Numerical results show the impact of the geographical environment - populations' mobility on the spread of the disease. The model is finally validated against real epidemic data from the Réunion event.
Palavras-Chave: Complex networks; Epidemiological models; Human mobility models; Metapopulation
Imprenta: Journal of Theoretical Biology, v. 318, p. 129-39, 2013
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.11.008
Descritores: Chikungunya virus - Pathogenesis ; Chikungunya virus - Viral infections ; Chikungunya Virus - Virus ; Chikungunya virus - Transmission ; Chikungunya virus - Chikungunya fever ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemic ; Chikungunya virus - Epidemiology ; Chikungunya virus - Public health
Data de publicação: 2013
