Autor(es): Eastin, Matthew D.; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Wexler, Joshua; Self, Cameron

Resumo: Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors all of which are influenced by environmental factors. Predictive models of dengue incidence rate, based on local weather and regional climate parameters, could benefit disease mitigation efforts. Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18 degrees C and 32 degrees C-the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission. Two environment-based, multivariate, autoregressive forecast models are developed that allow dengue outbreaks to be anticipated from 2 weeks to 6 months in advance. These models have the potential to enhance existing dengue early warning systems, ultimately supporting public health decisions on the timing and scale of vector control efforts.

Palavras-Chave: Nino-Southern-Oscillation; Aedes-Aegypti Diptera; Population-Dynamics; El-Nino; Puerto-Rico; Virus Transmission; Hemorrhagic-Fever; Borne Disease; French-Guiana; Temperature

Imprenta: American Journal of Tropical Medicine And Hygiene, v. 91, n. 3, p. 598-610, 2014

Identificador do objeto digital: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0303

Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Epidemiology ; Aedes aegypti - Public health

Data de publicação: 2014