Weather-driven variation in dengue activity in Australia examined using a process-based modeling approach
Autor(es): Bannister Tyrrell, Melanie; Williams, Craig; Ritchie, Scott A.; Rau, Gina; Lindesay, Janette; Mercer, Geoff; Harley, David
Resumo: The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991-2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia.
Palavras-Chave: Aedes aegypti diptera; Vector borne diseases; Life table model; Climate change; Global distribution; Fever; Transmission; Virus
Imprenta: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, v. 88, n. 1, p. 65-72, 2013
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0451
Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Epidemiology ; Aedes aegypti - Public health
Data de publicação: 2013
