Autor(es): Yang, H. M.; Macoris, M. L. G.; Galvani, K. C.; Andrighetti, M. T. M.; Wanderley, D. M. V.

Resumo: The incidence of dengue infection, a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, shows clear dependence on seasonal variation. Based on the quantification method that furnishes the size of the A. aegypti population in terms of the estimated entomological parameters for different temperatures, we assessed the risk or dengue outbreaks. The persistence and severity of epidemics can be assessed by the basic reproduction number R(0), which varies with temperature. The expression for R(0) obtained from 'true' and 'pseudo' mass action laws for dengue infection is discussed.

Palavras-Chave: Basic reproduction number; Global warming; Mass action law; Mathematical modelling; Risk of dengue with temperature

Imprenta: Epidemiology and Infection, v. 137, n. 8, p. 1179-1187, 2009

Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1017/S0950268809002052

Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Dengue ; Aedes aegypti - Epidemiology ; Aedes aegypti - Public health

Data de publicação: 2009