Understanding uncertainties in model-based predictions of Aedes aegypti population dynamics
Autor(es): Xu, Chonggang ; Legros, Mathieu; Gould, Fred; Lloyd, Alun L
Resumo: Dengue is one of the most important insect-vectored human viral diseases. The principal vector is Aedes aegypti, a mosquito that lives in close association with humans. Currently, there is no effective vaccine available and the only means for limiting dengue outbreaks is vector control. To help design vector control strategies, spatial models of Ae. aegypti population dynamics have been developed. However, the usefulness of such models depends on the reliability of their predictions, which can be affected by different sources of uncertainty including uncertainty in the model parameter estimation, uncertainty in the model structure, measurement errors in the data fed into the model, individual variability, and stochasticity in the environment. This study quantifies uncertainties in the mosquito population dynamics predicted by Skeeter Buster, a spatial model of Ae. aegypti, for the city of Iquitos, Peru. The uncertainty quantification should enable us to better understand the reliability of model predictions, improve Skeeter Buster and other similar models by targeting those parameters with high uncertainty contributions for further empirical research, and thereby decrease uncertainty in model predictions.
Palavras-Chave: Human diseases; Viral diseases; Pest control; Vaccines; Hosts; Population dynamics; Aquatic insects; Disease transmission; Public health; Data processing; Dengue; Vectors; Stochasticity; Models; Aedes aegypti
Imprenta: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 4, n. 9, 2010.
Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Transmission ; Aedes aegypti - Vaccine ; Aedes aegypti - Dengue ; Aedes aegypti - Public health
Data de publicação: 2010
