Comparing dengue and chikungunya emergence and endemic transmission in A. aegypti and A. albopictus
Autor(es): Manore, Carrie A.; Hickmann, Kyle S.; Xu, Sen; Wearing, Helen J.; Hyman, James M.
Resumo: Chikungunya and dengue are re-emerging mosquito-borne infectious diseases that are of increasing concern as human travel and expanding mosquito ranges increase the risk of spread. We seek to understand the differences in transient and endemic behavior of chikungunya and dengue; risk of emergence for different virus-vector assemblages; and the role that virus evolution plays in disease dynamics and risk. To address these questions, we adapt a mathematical mosquito-borne disease model to chikungunya and dengue in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. We derive analytical threshold conditions and important dimensionless parameters for virus transmission; perform sensitivity analysis on quantities of interest such as the basic reproduction number, endemic equilibrium, and first epidemic peak; and compute distributions for the quantities of interest across parameter ranges. We found that chikungunya and dengue exhibit different transient dynamics and long-term endemic levels. While the order of most sensitive parameters is preserved across vector-virus combinations, the magnitude of sensitivity is different across scenarios, indicating that risk of invasion or an outbreak can change with vector-virus assemblages. We found that the dengue - A. aegypti and new Reunion strain of chikungunya - A. albopictus systems represent the highest risk across the range of parameters considered. These results inform future experimental and field research efforts and point toward effective mitigation strategies adapted to each disease.
Palavras-Chave: Endemic species; Human diseases; Mathematical models; Epidemics; Infectious diseases; Quantitative distribution; Aquatic insects; Disease transmission; Public health; Travel; Dengue; Risk factors; Reproduction; Evolution; Sensitivity; Mitigation; Sensitivity analysis; Invasions; Risk taking; Outbreaks; Aedes aegypti; Aedes albopictus
Imprenta: Journal of Theoretical Biology, v. 356, p. 174-191, 2014.
Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Infectious diseases ; Aedes aegypti - Virus ; Aedes aegypti - Transmission ; Aedes aegypti - Dengue ; Aedes aegypti - Epidemic ; Aedes aegypti - Public health
Data de publicação: 2014
