A case study of the influence of local weather on Aedes aegypti (L.) aging and mortality
Autor(es): Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Degallier, Nicolas; Servain, Jacques; Hannart, Alexis; Durand, Bruno; de Souza, Raimundo Nonato; Ribeiro, Zolyde Mota
Resumo: The survival rate of mosquitoes is an important topic that affects many aspects of decision-making in mosquito management. This study aims to estimate the variability in the survival rate of Ae. aegypti, and climate factors that are related to such variability. It is generally assumed that the daily probability of mosquito survival is independent of natural environment conditions and age. To test this assumption, a three-year fieldwork (20052007) and experimental study was conducted at Fortaleza-CE in Brazil with the aim of estimating daily survival rates of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti under natural conditions in an urban city. Survival rates of mosquitoes may be age-dependent and statistical analysis is a sensitive approach for comparing patterns of mosquito survival. We studied whether weather conditions occurring on a particular day influence the mortality observed on that particular day. We therefore focused on the impact of daily meteorological fluctuations around a given climate average, rather than on the influence of climate itself. With regard to survival time, multivariate analyses using the stepwise logistic regression model, adjusted for daily temperature, relative humidity, and saturated vapor pressure deficit (SVPD), suggest that age, the seasonal factor, and the SVPD were the most dependent mortality factors. Similar results were obtained using the Cox proportional hazard model, which explores the relationships between the survival and explanatory variables.
Palavras-Chave: Dengue; Hazard rate; Cox's proportional hazard function; Time-dependent covariates; Survival function; Logistic hazard model
Imprenta: Journal of Vector Ecology, v. 38, n. 1, p. 20-37, 2013
Identificador do objeto digital: 10.1111/j.1948-7134.2013.12005.x
Descritores: Aedes aegypti - Public health
Data de publicação: 2013
