Energy scenarios for sustainable development
Autor(es): Nebojsa Nakcenovic
Palavras-Chave: Energia; Desenvolvimento sustentável
Notas: The provision of affordable and environmentally sound energy services is a prerequisite for further social and economic development in the world. This is a formidable challenge considering that two billion people today are still without access to adequate energy services in the world. These two billion are the same people who generally live in poverty and do not have access to clean water, sanitation, education, health care or many other modern infrastructures and the same people who suffer environmental degradation including indoor air pollution. In addition, the global population is expected to increase in the median demographic projections by some four billion people by the end of the 21st century. All of these people will require clean and affordable energy services as well. A transition to the efficient and environmentally benign provision and end-use of energy can advert the potential conflict between development and protection of the environment. Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments many affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals, such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. Energy scenarios can provide a suitable framework for exploring transitions toward sustainable development paths. The three scenarios of alternative global developments presented in WEA suggest how the future could unfold in terms of economic growth, population trends and energy use. The challenge is formidable. For example, by 2100, 68 billion additional people significantly more than the world population todaywill need access to affordable, reliable, flexible, and convenient energy services. All three scenarios achieve this through different energy system developments, but with varying degrees of sustainability. The considerable differences in expected total energy consumption among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate that policy matters. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for the achievement of the three scenarios that have characteristics of sustainable development. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies...
